Wisconsin recall vote is telling, but of what?

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's decisive victory in Tuesday's recall election is a blow to the state's Democratic Party and its union allies and a spur to officials in other states who want to challenge the pension benefits of public-employee workers.However, even top officials of Mitt Romney's presidential campaign caution against over-reading its meaning for November's presidential elections, saying it demonstrates that the Badger State is competitive but not that Republicans can count on it.

On the other hand, neither can Democrats — thoughPresident Obama now leads in polling there.

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"I do think it's in play, and that's telling," Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to the Romney campaign, said today at a breakfast with reporters hosted by Bloomberg News. But he said the outcome reflected state issues and candidates and wasn't "a proxy fight" for Obama and Romney.

"It would be foolish for any Democrat to take these states for granted," says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. (He was a strategist for a state Senate candidate in Wisconsin whose victory Tuesday tips control of the state Senate to the Democrats.) "But there's not a lot of vulnerability here for President Obama. The same exit polls that had (Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tom) Barrett losing by six points show Obama ahead of Romney by similar margins."Surveys of voters as they left polling places show a tighter race in Wisconsin for Obama this year than his easy 56%-42% win over Republican John McCain in 2008, but he still leads Romney by 51%-44% and is preferred over him on handling the economy.

Still, Wisconsin is one of several once-solidly Democratic states — Pennsylvania and Michigan are others — that are viewed as battlegrounds this time. All three have voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections.

"Tonight's results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin," Romney said in written statement issued Tuesday night. The Obama campaign's comment was left to state director Tripp Wellde, who acknowledged in a statement, "Tonight's outcome was not what we had hoped for," though he argued there was "a very steep pathway for Mitt Romney" in the state.

Beyond the presidential race, the results show a willingness by voters even in Wisconsin, the first state to provide collective bargaining rights to public employees, to curb the cost of their benefits. Voters by 52%-47% approved of recent changes in state law that limited the ability of public workers to collectively bargain over pay and benefits.

And in California on Tuesday, voters in San Diego and San Jose overwhelmingly approved initiatives that would cut pension benefits for municipal employees as part of an effort to balance city budgets that are in the red.

Walker's victory "will have a huge impact on how a lot of states deal with their looming insolvency," predicts Republican strategist Steve Schmidt. If the governor had lost, it would have had "a huge freezing effect" on efforts to curb public employee benefits.

Veteran Democratic strategist Robert Shrum agrees that there is "obviously a real sentiment" to curb retirement benefits for public workers. "People have a sense the pension benefits are very generous and need to be scaled back or public employees need to contribute more," he says.

Shrum also says Obama's lead in Wisconsin exit polls and recent statewide surveys in Michigan and Pennsylvania demonstrate that Obama's attacks on Romney's record atBain Capital are working in the industrial heartland. "Out there in places like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, they obviously have an impact," Shrum says.

One more lesson from Tuesday: Voters are leery of recall elections. Six in 10 Wisconsin voters said recalls are only appropriate in cases of official misconduct. Those voters supported Walker by more than 2-1.

Lt. Gov: Obama skipping Wisconsin recall 'speaks volumes'

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CNN's Chris Welch

Madison, Wisconsin (CNN) - President Barack Obama's absence in Wisconsin to campaign for the Republican governor's challenger "speaks volumes," and is a troubling sign for Democrats, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch said.

In an interview with CNN on Friday, Kleefisch was asked about former President Bill Clinton's stop in the state that day.

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She said Democrats believe Tuesday's recall election is "a dry run for the presidential race."

Kleefisch then transitioned to Obama.

"What's more obvious is that the president himself - the current president - is not in town," she said. "And that, to me, speaks volumes, his absence."

Asked to elaborate, she went a bit further.

"I think what it says specifically is that the president doesn't want to be associated with a losing campaign, and Tom Barrett's campaign right now doesn't have a whole lot of facts to stand on."

Clinton urged Wisconsin Democrats to vote for Barrett in Tuesday's recall election, saying Gov. Scott Walker has led the state without honest negotiation.

Walker, Kleefisch and four state senators are on the recall ballot.

Walker and GOP allies in the state legislature voted in January 2011 to limit raises for public employees, except police and firefighters, to the rate of inflation. They also moved to bar unions from deducting dues from workers' paychecks.

Kleefisch spoke at an evening rally hosted by Americans for Prosperity and the Tea Party Express. She was not officially on the schedule for the event, but her aides said she had an unrelated event nearby.

Asked how she was feeling, given the fact that Wisconsin residents could vote her out of office in a few days, Kleefisch said she's "not afraid to lose."

"I don't think the governor or I is afraid to lose because we've done what has been right for our state, for our children, and for all the sons and daughters of Wisconsin."

Wisconsin recall election tests voters' appetite for cuts Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/06/03/3639615/wisconsin-recall-election-tests.html#storylink=cpy

WAUKESHA, WIS. -- The brawl over whether to recall Gov. Scott Walker is a taut preview of what's coming to campaigns across America this year.

Wisconsin voters will decide Tuesday whether to remove the Republican from office and replace him with Democrat Thomas Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee. Under fire for cutting budgets at the expense of public employees, Walker would be only the third governor in U.S. history yanked from office in a recall election. Walker has an edge, but the race is close.

The campaign will mean more than who governs Wisconsin. It's a test case of the larger clashes in American politics driving elections for the presidency and control of Congress, highlighting divisions over the costs of government. Backed by money pouring in from out of state, the race is raising questions that will echo across the country.

Can a tough-minded conservative Republican force cutbacks in government at the risk of angering public employees unions and still win a swing state such as Wisconsin? Will voters think he's doing the best he can in a tough time? Or will they rise in a grassroots backlash against a well-financed Republican effort?

The answers could be telling, given Wisconsin's recent political history. The state has been a bellwether in recent years. It elected a Democratic governor and U.S. senator by wide margins in 2006 - part of a nationwide turn to the Democrats at the end of the George W. Bush years. It went easily for President Barack Obama in 2008, a key part of his win. And in 2010, voters elected a conservative Republican governor and U.S. senator, part of the Republican tide.

The key to winning here - as in other close races - will depend largely on undecided voters and turnout. While economic worry is commonplace, so is uncertainty that changing leaders will help.

Carey Peck, who just graduated with a master's degree and is unable to find a job, offered a typical lament.

"I don't agree with the recall. It should be reserved for someone who's committed big offenses," he said at a coffee shop in this Milwaukee suburb. "I don't agree with what Walker has done, but I don't think he's done anything to warrant a recall."

The boyish-looking Walker is fighting hard to keep his job, all over television calmly saying jobs have been created on his watch. His supporters work the phones, reminding voters that despite all the anger over Walker's policies, Wisconsin hasn't plunged into an economic ditch.

His campaign is fueled largely by out-of-state money. He's collected $13.87 million in individual contributions from out-of-state sources, and $9.18 million from in-state backers. Barrett, who started later, has collected $102,998 from out-of-state individuals and $712,551 from in-state contributors, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan group.

"Conservatives around the country see Walker as a symbol of the kind of change they want," said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll.

If Walker has the advantage in money, Barrett has the unions to help organize.

A coalition of unions, minorities and progressive groups have been sending vans through Milwaukee neighborhoods to round up voters since early voting began May 21. In Madison, about three dozen people gather every day at noon for an hour to sing traditional protest songs like "We Shall Overcome" in the Capitol Rotunda.

Walker shot to national attention last year during a bitter standoff over his bid to impose significant limits on collective bargaining for most public employees. Fourteen Democratic state senators fled to Illinois, in an ultimately unsuccessful bid to block the legislation. Anti-Walker protests filled the Capitol and capitol grounds.

Since then, Walker has sounded somewhat contrite, telling interviewers that he probably could have explained more thoroughly that drastic steps were needed to balance the state's budget. Now he maintains he stabilized state finances, which most analysts say is accurate.

Some numbers support him. The state's April unemployment rate was 6.7 percent, down from 7.5 percent a year ago. But the number of people on seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls was down about 6,000 in April to 2.732 million, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Walker's approach resonates in Milwaukee's suburbs. Cutting government spending, people say, motivates people to seek jobs and prods employers to hire. Walker's latest ad charges Barrett would "take Wisconsin back to the failed days of billion-dollar budget deficits, double-digit tax increases, and record job loss."

"I just believe in everything Walker is doing. I'm tired of people getting away with doing nothing," said a vehement Nancy Walker - no relation - a crafts worker from Hartford. "I worked three jobs, raised my children, paid my own health insurance and I don't agree with people who say you owe it to me to help me."

Debbie Rank, a grocery store worker in Waukesha, scoffed at complaints that Walker's cuts would mean more children in classrooms. "We had that when I was in school," she said. "And I've paid my health insurance since the day I started working."

Go into the city of Milwaukee and it's easy to find discouraged voters who want Walker out. He doesn't understand, they say, that they only want help, not handouts.

Greg Renden, a public defender, took a pay cut. He blames Walker for making an already dismal economy worse. "He's abdicated the role of trying to help people in need," said Renden.

Shyquetta McElroy feels the pain in several places. A single mother, with children ages 2 and 5, she works part time as a data entry specialist. She has an associate's degree and would like to get a more advanced degree.

She relies on the state's health care program and uses other programs to help pay for food and for education. Because of cutbacks, she worries that one of her children will no longer qualify for health coverage. Food aid already has been cut.

Walker - and the political system - are making it harder for her to become more self-reliant, she said.

"I don't buy any snacks for the kids now," McElroy said. "I buy basic things."

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/06/03/3639615/wisconsin-recall-election-tests.html#storylink=cpy

In Wisconsin recall, Democrat Barrett fails to excite

MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - George Posker and Neal Muller, union workers at a small manufacturing plant near Madison, want to see Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker recalled from office in a special vote next week because of his assault on labor unions.

But sitting on the tailgate of a pickup truck bearing a "Recall Walker" bumper sticker, both expressed doubts about Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the man seeking to drive Walker from office."I want him to win, but I'm convinced he'll lose if he doesn't step up his game," Muller, 51, said. Neither Muller nor Posker voted for Barrett in the primary to select a Democratic challenger to Walker.

With just five days to the recall vote, Barrett is struggling to close the deal against Walker in a battle that has drawn national attention as a test case for key Republican and Democratic causes before the November presidential elections.

Democrats brought former President Bill Clinton to Milwaukee on Friday to give Barrett's campaign a boost, one of several top politicians from both parties to stop in Wisconsin. Clinton praised Barrett's leadership of the city, saying he had sought consensus rather than division.

"How did he do it? Shared sacrifice, shared responsibilities and not breaking the unions," Clinton said.

People who know Barrett personally describe him as the quintessential Midwestern nice guy - pragmatic rather than ideological, not flashy or passionate.

Barrett the peacemaker won wide praise three years ago when he came to the aid of a woman being assaulted by a man outside the Wisconsin State Fairgrounds, only to have her attacker turn on him with a tire iron. The mayor was seriously injured.

Despite Barrett's reputation for basic decency, every public poll published since he was chosen as the Democratic candidate for governor on May 8 has shown Barrett trailing.

Barrett won the primary over four other Democratic candidates.

UNION RESTRICTIONS AT ISSUE

A year ago, Walker set off a firestorm of protest by pushing a new law severely restricting public sector unions. It required teachers and others to pay more for pensions and health insurance, capped wage increases, made union dues voluntary and required unions to be recertified every year.

Unions generally back Democrats.

Thanks to Wisconsin's unusual recall law, the vote will not be up or down on Walker. It will be between Walker and Barrett, the same two candidates for governor as in 2010, when Walker won by 5 percentage points.

Barrett started his campaign late and his fund-raising always lagged behind that of Walker, who has traveled the country and been widely feted as a conservative conquering hero for taking on the unions.

Walker has gathered some $30 million in campaign donations since taking office in January 2011. Barrett has raised about $4 million since he joined the race in late March.

In the final debate between the two, on Thursday, Barrett said Walker was running eight television ads for every one by the Democrat.

"When you have a huge resource advantage like Walker has had and you're able to make your own case while making a strong case against an opponent, your likelihood to win goes up a lot," said Tad Devine, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist who worked for the unsuccessful John Kerry and Al Gore presidential campaigns.

There have been numerous local media reports of strains between Wisconsin Democrats and the national party, who are focused on getting President Barack Obama reelected and have only stepped up the flow of money to Wisconsin in recent days.

Wisconsin Republican Voters Rival Democrats in Recall

After 15 months of clamoring for Scott Walker’s recall, Wisconsin Democrats learned in the May 8 primary that Republicans are just as energized in their defense of the first-term governor.

Walker collected almost as many votes as all four Democratic candidates combined in a race he was all but assured of winning. A count by the Associated Press had the governor winning 626,538 votes compared with 665,436 for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and three other contenders.

“The Republicans treated this in terms of getting out their vote as if it were a general election,” Barrett said during a news conference yesterday in Milwaukee. “They worked as hard as they could.”

The turnout offered a hint of what might come June 5 with two energized parties clashing in only the third recall of a governor in U.S. history, said Charles Franklin, who directs the Marquette Law School poll. In 2010, 2.1 million people voted in the governor’s race.

“There’s every reason to believe we’ll hit 2.5 million or higher, easily,” Franklin said.

With 26 days before the recall vote, polls show hardened attitudes among Republicans and Democrats.

“Governor Walker’s supporters are fired up and are ready to do whatever it takes to win this thing,” said Ben Sparks, communications director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin. “Intensity is high.”

Fresh Focus

While Barrett won his party’s primary -- and a do-over of the 2010 gubernatorial contest that he lost -- the selection of a nominee “is almost irrelevant,” said Dane County Democratic Party Chairman Mike Basford. “For many, the only candidate on the ballot is Scott Walker.”

Barrett’s 24 percentage point win over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk shows how the effort to oust Walker has changed. In February 2011, protesters massed at the Capitol in Madison objecting to limits on collective bargaining by most public workers that Walker pushed through the Republican- dominated Legislature.

Organized labor played a key role in obtaining signatures to force the recall election, yet a May 2 Marquette poll showed that Walker’s union law was not the top concern of Democrats. Job creation ranked first, at 46 percent. Defeating Walker ranked second at 25 percent and ending divisiveness was third at 14 percent.

Restoring collective-bargaining rights was fourth, with 12 percent, the poll said.

Political Judo

Democrats are drawing from the Republican campaign playbook against President Barack Obama and turning it against the governor. They point to Walker’s promise of 250,000 new jobs in his first term and note that Wisconsin has lost more employment than any other state in the past year.

Labor, which backed Falk, showed the limitations of its clout in the primary, Franklin said. Barrett ran up heavy majorities in blue-collar counties of southeastern Wisconsin.

“The recall shows how strong their organizing strengths are, but organizing takes you only so far,” Franklin said. “You have to have a candidate and the issues on your side. Barrett avoids some of the liabilities of being labor’s hand- picked candidate.”

Walker has raised more than $25 million for the recall and, as of April 30, had $4.9 million remaining, according to state finance records. The combined total of contributions, much of it coming from out-of-state interests, has already exceeded the $37.4 million spent in the 2010 governor’s race between Barrett and Walker.

Barrett, who lost to Walker by about 125,000 votes two years ago, said he “walks away encouraged” that more Democrats voted than Republicans. He said his party is united because “we all understand what’s at stake.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Jones in Milwaukee at tjones58@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Merelman at smerelman@bloomberg.net