Analysis: Right move for Stan Van Gundy to leave Magic

on Tuesday, 22 May 2012
The right time is sometimes just that, the right time, regardless of circumstances.

Put aside Dwight Howard's uncertain future with the Orlando Magic and the team's desire to sign the All-Star center to a long-term extension.
Put aside the Magic's dysfunctional 2011-12 season.
After 371 victories, 208 losses (an impressive .641 winning percentage), one trip to the NBA Finals, two Eastern Conference finals appearances and five playoff appearances in five seasons, it isn't a bad thing the Magic fired coach Stan Van Gundy and parted ways with general manager Otis Smith on Monday.
Change is uncomfortable and necessary. Five seasons with one team is a good run for an NBA coach, and Van Gundy made the most of his tenure. Don't worry about him because Van Gundy was never worried about his job, no matter how it turned out.
"If they want to fire me, they can fire me today," Van Gundy liked to say with refreshing candor and admirable boldness this season, always adding that he would find something to do — sit on his back porch with his family and enjoy the day or drive to Tampa for a Rays game.
Stan Van Gundy will be fine.
It's the Magic whose future needs direction. They went as far as they were going to go with Van Gundy, and now is the perfect time for CEO Alex Martins to find the right GM and coach.
There also was no way Orlando could keep Van Gundy if they wanted to keep Howard long-term, and that's what the Magic want to do. The situation had become unsustainable, entertaining news conferences aside.
To retain Howard, Van Gundy and Smith had to go, replaced by choices suitable to Howard.
It's a critical moment in Orlando's history. Owner Richard DeVos is 86 and wants to see the Magic win a championship. That huge responsibility falls on Martins, but the Magic have a proven commitment to winning and should attract quality candidates for both positions.
There are roster changes to make, too. Point guard Jameer Nelson can become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and free agent Ryan Anderson, the NBA's Most Improved Player, will be an unrestricted free agent. Next season, the Magic already are locked into $58 million (close to the salary cap), not including Nelson and Anderson.
The real test is getting Howard signed beyond next season. If not, it's very possible the Magic begin next season with him.
They will be without Van Gundy, who had one season remaining on his contract. He will get paid, and he won't long for a job, if that's what he wants. If another NBA team doesn't hire him for next season, he will make a great TV analyst. A three-man crew of Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy and Stan Van Gundy would make a Washington Wizards-Charlotte Bobcats game worth watching.
The Portland Trail Blazers and Wizards have interim coaches; the Bobcats job is open. The Blazers' is more appealing, if open, because Portland is playoff-ready. The Wizards and Bobcats aren't close. It would be quite a step up to get Van Gundy.
Former Portland Trail Blazers coach Nate McMillan and former New York Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni do not have jobs, and Golden State Warriors assistant Mike Malone, who recently interviewed for the Charlotte job, is a hot young name gaining attention. His father, Brendan, was an assistant for Van Gundy. Indiana Pacers assistant coach Brian Shaw is another name for teams to consider.
Plenty of strong front-office office executives are available, too, including former Knicks president Donnie Walsh and former New Orleans Hornets general manager Jeff Bower. Oklahoma City assistant general manager Troy Weaver is credited with helping Sam Thunder GM Sam Presti build that roster. The Oklahoma City model of building through the draft, prudent free-agent signings and wise trades while managing the salary cap is desirable but not duplicated easily.
But the critical piece is Howard. He has agreed to play for the Magic through 2012-13 and will become an unrestricted free agent after next season.
But Martins has said he does not want to go through another scenario like this season, where Howard's future was a season-long distraction, creating too many awkward, uncomfortable and unproductive moments.
If Martins — and his new GM and coach — can't convince Howard to sign a long-term deal, what then?
The Magic have factors working in their favor.
Howard could have input on the next coach and GM, and Martins has professed that the more time the Magic have to convince Howard to stay, the better he likes their chances. He convinced Howard to opt in to the final year of his contract and believes he can convince Howard to sign a long-term deal.
Plus, his back surgery might prompt Howard to lock in a long-term deal with more guaranteed money. Orlando can offer Howard one more year and about $20 million more than another team.
The Magic have something working against them, too. The New Jersey Nets want Howard and believe they can get him, one way or the other, sooner or later.
And as much as he was part of the dysfunction in Orlando, the time might be right for Howard to leave the Magic, too.

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